North-Central Bureau Chief, ISAAC SHOBAYO speaks with Senator Victor Lar, a staunch member of the All Progressives Congress (APC), on the 2027 presidential election, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s prospects, and the political squabble between the APC Governors Forum and Rainbow Coalition led by the Minister of FCT, Nyesom Wike, among other issues. Excerpt:
AS the 2027 general election draws near, what is present assessment of the political situation in the country?
To be quite honest with you, I am torn between appreciating the dynamics of reforms and the realities of everyday Nigerian’s lives. That is, the situation in the country is such that the typical Nigerian is dissatisfied and is facing unprecedented challenges as a result of the removal of the petroleum subsidy.
I believe that with insecurity, an average Nigerian will feel dissatisfied and may not be keen on taking part in the 2027 election. Today, I can tell you that no geopolitical zone is free of insecurity. If you look at the Constitution of Nigeria, especially the section that has to do with the Fundamental Objective and Directive Principles of State Policy, it places the sole responsibility and aim of governance and government on securing lives and property and ensuring the welfare of the majority of the people. In the light of this, I’d like to state that ordinary Nigerian morale is quite low as we approach the next election. And that may result in low turnout in the forthcoming general elections. However, if you look at the preparations, you have to give it to INEC; so far, the Commission has religiously tried to follow all the benchmarks and landmarks for the 2027 elections. INEC is doing well; they have not complained about funding, they are preparing for the election, and so far they have not disappointed me.
Did you envision your party, the All Progressives Congress, performing admirably in the 2027 election based on the scenarios you have just painted?
Unlike all of the other opposition political parties, the APC is not struggling for recognition and legitimacy. Our party is more viable in every nook and cranny of this country than any other party. When you consider the number of governors in the APC, if each governor works for re-election, it means more hands will be working for the party, and more money will be available to prosecute the election. And also more people in terms of agents or opinion leaders that would work for APC. The turnout might not be up to 2023, but at the end of it all, we would still win. Also, taking into consideration the fact that there are no organized opposition parties. If you look at the opposition that sent PDP packing, they were more united, formidable, and more integrated in their struggles to wrestle power from the opposition than now. Look at it. Is it Atiku or Peter Obi or Prince Adewale that would dislodge President Tinubu in 2027? None of them has what it takes to do that. If all of them were to be together, I would say they would make an impact, but as it is, the fragmentation of the rank and file of the opposition is the sure way of guaranteeing the return of the APC, so APC would still win.
But don’t you believe it’s too early to assume that this isn’t feasible given that they are galvanising for a single candidate to be presented as the presidential candidate?
Until then, but for now, I’m talking based on the reality on the ground. At the moment there’s no strong opposition party to fully challenge the APC, especially its presidential candidate. And it will be challenging to form the kind of coalition that sent the Peoples Democratic Party parking, but let’s see how it works out for them.
From all indications, Nigerian politics are progressively improving, and people are saying that election is not about political parties but individuals standing for election. What is your take on this?
You are correct that using the party as a determining factor in winning elections in Nigeria is steadily diminishing; people are more interested in who is holding a certain party’s ticket than the platform itself. That is why political parties must take their primary elections serious rather than just designating anyone based solely on primordial opinion. The last Osun State governorship election was a typical example, with the voters voting for the candidate rather than the popular political party.
The opposition parties are capitalising on so many loopholes as bases for their campaigns against this administration. Do you see Mr. President surviving this onslaught?
First, with the prevailing situation across states in Nigeria, the APC may still have a majority in the National Assembly. It is more difficult for Tinubu to loose than for the opposition to win. The advantages of incumbency are too numerous for Tinubu to lose; there’s no state in Nigeria that the president will not get twenty-five percent. So if he gets a simple majority and still gets twenty-five percent in 24 states, he will still win. It is easier for him to win than for Atiku or Obi to win.
Are you saying Mr. Peter Obi will not be able to match or exceed his 2023 vote total in the upcoming elections?
I can tell you that in 2023, by this time, virtually all the states had organised a one-million-man march for Peter Obi; the majority of those who sponsored the march are no longer there again, simply because Obi didn’t manage his followers very well. Look at the National Assembly; at a point in time the Labour Party had about ten senators; none of them are still there now—they had decamped to another political party, especially the APC. He had more than thirty-three members of the House of Representatives; the majority of them had equally left because the party as a platform is not marketable and sellable only because the leadership, Obi as arrowhead, did not carry others along. It will take the hand of God for him to get the vote he got the last time.
So what you are saying is that he cannot leverage on the goodwill he enjoyed in 2023 to win the coming presidential election?
Obi has wasted so much goodwill, therefore not political relevant like in 2023.
The campaign for Mr. President’s second term has left the APC Governor’s Forum and Rainbow Coalition, led by Federal Capital Territory Minister Barrister Nyesom Wike, entangled in controversy. What do you think about this as an ardent APC member?
APC as a party, rather became too arrogant and complacent that they overlooked the basic tenet of popular participation in the selection of their candidates. It’s like every governor was given an APC franchise; go bring the people you want, let them run. That alone antagonized so many people that had stood or held the party and responsible for the substantial followership of the party. You don’t jettison opinion leaders and expect their followers to stay with you. So the Rainbow Coalition, if it is formidable as Wike is presenting it, is only coming in to block the loopholes caused by the leadership of the APC. I can tell you that immediately after the presidential election, the political arithmetic will change; even some APC governors will not come back, not necessarily because of the activities of the Rainbow Coalition, but every governor will bear its cross; it’s performance or non-performance that will decide whether you will come back or not. The Rainbow Coalition is actually the composition of all the opposition that the leaders have not been able to put together.
From all indications all the contentious issues arising from the APC primary elections appear unresolved. Don’t you think this may have adverse effect on the party in the election?
It will surely have an adverse effect on the performance of the APC. But again, I understand that the leadership is doing much to reconcile many aggrieved persons. How far they would go is another thing.
The governorship election in Plateau State is being viewed by the APC as a walkover, people adduced this to be the main reason your party is not given the race the deserved attention what is your perception on this?
All Progressives Congress in Plateau State is one and united to win the coming election; despite this, the leadership is not taking things for granted. In Plateau State, rotation or zoning is sacrosanct; the electorates in the Northern zone and the Southern zones would rather manage a non performing governor for the next four years so that the governorship will be taken to the Northern zone in 2031 than to have a new person who will still be entitled to another four years after this one. So the unseen hand of rotation would work in favour of the present governor irrespective of his performance.
Candidates from other political parties in the governor’s senatorial district have insisted that they would only run for one term in order to avoid upsetting the zoning arrangement. Does that mean you don’t have faith in them?
My question is, can politicians be trusted? Plateau is a home of dynamic politics. After Jonah Jang’s eight years of superlative performance, we thought PDP would win, but the issue of violation of that zoning galvanized the entire state against him, so anything can happen. Anyone that is telling you that he’s going to stay for four years is simply playing politics because he wants to be elected.
