Adamu Amadu, in Dutse analyses the ongoing contest for the Jigawa Government House, highlighting the front runners.
THE political contest for the Jigawa State governorship seat ahead of the 2027 general elections is gradually assuming an increasingly competitive dimension, with the major contenders of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), All Progressives Congress (APC), and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) intensifying their political activities across the state.
At this stage, it remains difficult to predict which of the leading contenders has the upper hand. The political movements, consultations, rallies, defections, campaign preparations and choice of running mates by the major parties suggest a closely fought contest.
Although the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Dr Aminu Sani Musa, has his party’s activities relatively subdued, his emergence adds another dimension to the race.
The four prominent candidates are Senator Sabo Muhammad Nakudu of the ADC, Governor Umar Namadi of the APC, Alhaji Mustapha Sule Lamido of the PDP and Dr Aminu Sani Musa of the NDC.
Interestingly, the four candidates emerged from only two of Jigawa’s three senatorial districts. The ADC, PDP and NDC candidates are from Jigawa Southeast Senatorial District, while Governor Namadi hails from Jigawa Northeast.
Jigawa Northwest, however, produced two of the prominent running mates in the contest, giving the district an important strategic position ahead of the election.
Senatorial arithmetic
On the surface, the geographical distribution of the candidates appears to give Jigawa Northeast an advantage because it has produced only one governorship candidate, while Jigawa Southeast has three.
Ordinarily, this could suggest that votes in the Southeast might be divided among the three candidates, while the Northeast could consolidate behind one major candidate. But elections are rarely determined by geography alone. Political structures, personalities, incumbency, grassroots mobilisation, resources and voting patterns will also play decisive roles.
Jigawa Southeast has historically been regarded as a critical battleground in governorship elections. Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, the district has consistently contributed a substantial proportion of the votes that have helped determine the outcome of governorship contests in the state.
With a large population and significant voting strength, the district is expected to remain central to the 2027 contest.
Namadi and the advantage of incumbency
Governor Umar Namadi enters the race with the most obvious institutional advantage – incumbency.
Apart from coming from Jigawa Northeast, he controls the machinery of the ruling APC and enjoys the support of elected representatives and political structures across the state.
Supporters of the governor point to his backing by serving senators, members of the House of Representatives, local government chairmen, members of the state House of Assembly and councillors, as well as numerous political appointees at the federal, state and local government levels.
The governor also has the support of prominent federal appointees from the state, including Minister of State for Education, Suwaiba Ahmed, and Deputy Chief of Staff to the President, Ibrahim Hassan.
The administration is equally relying on its record of infrastructure and development projects across the state’s 27 local government areas, with projects running into hundreds of billions of naira.
These factors could give the APC candidate a formidable political structure and a strong campaign platform.
However, the governor also faces political challenges.
One of the major areas of concern is his home political zone, where some of his opponents have accused the administration of failing to meet expectations, particularly over projects such as the Hadejia Specialist Hospital.
There are also complaints from sections of the political class about the governor’s appointments and the alleged distance of some political appointees from their constituencies.
Some party members have complained that certain appointees rarely participate actively in grassroots political activities, a situation critics believe could affect mobilisation during the election.
Another issue that could shape the APC campaign is the unsolved reported political disagreement between Governor Namadi and his predecessor, former Governor Mohammed Badaru Abubakar.
Opponents of the governor contend that the disagreement has weakened some existing political alliances and alienated sections of the political class. The extent to which the dispute could affect APC’s grassroots structure will become clearer as the election approaches.
ADC and Nakudu’s opposition challenge
In Jigawa Southeast, the contest appears, for now, to be principally between the ADC’s Senator Sabo Muhammad Nakudu and the PDP’s Mustapha Sule Lamido, although the NDC remains part of the race.
Senator Nakudu brings considerable political experience, resources and a history of participation in governorship and legislative contests.
His choice of Malam Aminu Ibrahim as running mate is another factor the ADC hopes will strengthen its grassroots mobilisation.
Ibrahim, a former governorship aspirant under the PDP and NNPP, is regarded as having considerable political experience and grassroots contacts.
The ADC has also attracted a number of prominent politicians who left the APC amid disagreements within the ruling party. Some of those who moved to the opposition platform have subsequently secured legislative tickets, potentially giving the party an additional network for the 2027 campaign.
The current economic situation, insecurity and public concerns over the cost of living are issues the ADC is expected to emphasise in its campaign.
The party may also seek to benefit from wider opposition sentiments surrounding the Federal Government’s economic policies.
However, the ADC faces the formidable challenge of confronting an incumbent governor with access to the structures and resources of government.
Another major factor will be the influence of poverty and economic hardship on voting behaviour. In a political environment where financial inducements can influence vulnerable voters, opposition parties may face difficulties competing against the machinery of an incumbent administration.
Allegations of vote buying, if they arise, will remain matters for electoral authorities and security agencies to address.
Mustapha Sule Lamido and the PDP factor
The PDP’s Mustapha Sule Lamido is another major contender in the race.
He was the party’s governorship candidate in 2023 and has again secured its ticket for 2027.
As the son of former Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido, Mustapha enters the contest with the advantage of a well-known political family name and an established PDP network across the state that in 2023 influenced the winning of one senator, two members of house of representatives and number of state Assembly legislatures in the state.
The former governor remains a major figure in Jigawa politics, having governed the state for eight years. His supporters continue to point to his administration’s investments in human capital development, infrastructure and other sectors.
The younger Lamido is also presenting himself as a new-generation politician, with supporters highlighting his education, exposure, political experience and commitment to public service.
The selection of Alhaji Inuwa Tahir, a retired Head of Service of Jigawa State from Jigawa Northeast, as his running mate is seen by PDP supporters as a strategic decision capable of strengthening the party’s appeal beyond the Southeast.
However, the PDP faces its own internal challenge. The emergence of another governorship contender from the party’s factional structure led by Kabiru Turaki has the potential to create complications for the party if the dispute is not resolved.
The NDC factor
Dr Aminu Sani Musa of the NDC is the fourth prominent candidate in the race.
Although the party’s activities have so far attracted less attention than those of the APC, ADC and PDP, its candidate cannot be completely ignored.
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Nevertheless, the candidate’s political background and the eventual strength of the party’s organisation will determine whether the NDC can transform its participation from a symbolic contest into a serious electoral challenge.
The battle ahead
Ultimately, the 2027 Jigawa governorship election is unlikely to be determined by the senatorial origin of the candidates alone.
The APC has the advantage of incumbency, government structures and an extensive political network. The ADC is banking on opposition sentiment, the experience and profile of Senator Nakudu, as well as the strength of politicians who have defected to the party.
The PDP, meanwhile, is relying on the Lamido political legacy, its established grassroots structure and the appeal of Mustapha Sule Lamido as a younger candidate.
The NDC remains an emerging factor whose strength will depend largely on its organisation, campaign strategy and choice of running mate.
With the three major contenders drawing significant political strength from different constituencies, the race is shaping up as a contest in which no candidate can safely claim victory at this stage.
As 2027 approaches, the decisive factors are likely to include grassroots mobilisation, party unity, candidate popularity, economic conditions, campaign organisation and, most importantly, the ability of each political camp to translate its perceived strength into actual votes on election day.
For now, therefore, the question of who holds the upper hand in the Jigawa governorship race remains open. Only the voters and ultimately the ballot boxes will provide the answer.
